Huh? I imagine that, since I can’t say it out loud, that’s what some people have been muttering to themselves recently, isn’t it? 🤣

There was, not so long ago, a serious warning shot. Huh?

Oh yes, remember President Macron’s visit to Madagascar.

It almost flopped.

A “state visit” that was almost prematurely cut short with the death of Pope Francis. Goodbye, cow, pig, right?

That time Madagascar escaped the axe, and it was Mauritius that suffered the cancellation. But it was a close call.

The massacre.

Round two with these June 25th festivities. Preceded 10 days earlier by the appalling tragedy in Ambohimalaza, with, let’s remember, 25 deaths to date. And the death toll isn’t yet final.

Then, it seems, all the regions have joined in the fight: Majunga, Ambositra, Tulear, etc. Deaths from food poisoning were rife there too, 41 to date. And not to be outdone, Ikongo joined the party with its 80 deaths from malaria 😳

In short, it was complicated to organize podiums and water jets under these conditions. But the course was nevertheless maintained with a moment of silence.

And yes, once again, we come back to our risk management, inherent in any project, whatever it may be.

Imagining the worst

In the heat of the moment, how can we imagine for a single second that there could be that small grain of sand that could derail everything? How can we imagine the unimaginable in advance? How can we bet on the future?

Let’s take this umpteenth summit in August 2025 in Madagascar, the one of the SADC Heads of State.

How can we imagine today, June 26, 2025, what these grains of sand could be that could derail this summit in less than two months?

It’s complicated, isn’t it?

I don’t know, let’s imagine yet another health problem? Malaria that’s going to hell, the plague, cholera? It’s possible, right?

Or a social explosion that can no longer be controlled? Massive sopo-supply with this dying Jirama, riots, the country going up in flames, rotaka, a state of emergency, and all that jazz.

Don’t say impossible, because empty stomachs, eh? Empty stomachs… or dry throats, for that matter, and it’s not getting any better.

What else?

I have plenty of other ideas, it’s part of my job to establish these risks, and I’m paid for that, among other things.

But since the Malagasy government doesn’t pay me, I don’t see why I should provide it with information for free.

But I guarantee there will be grains of sand before August.

My experienced analyst’s eye detects too many problems and kitoatoa in this country, so there will be bugs; it’s mathematical.

It’s also a bit like traders on Wall Street: they’re paid to guess what will happen tomorrow or the day after. To know if the stock will collapse or, on the contrary, soar.

And when we look at the current Madagougou stock, the trend is more towards “get rid of your shares,” right?

Who would bet a kopek on a country without water or electricity?

No one. If I invest, it’s so it works, so it runs…

… and not to make ends meet every morning with yellow water bottles and makeshift power banks.

So, have a great August, and allow me to put this column away, so I can bring it out again when the time comes, in “I told you so” mode.